Application of the WRF meteorological model for rainfall forecast in the Cuba rainy season, 2014
Abstract
The objective was the application of the WRF meteorological model and verify its rainfall forecast in the Cuba rainy season in 2014, for that two domains were built, one external of 24 x 24 km and one internal of 8 x 8 km resolution. Some of the used parameterization schemes were the ACM2 for boundary layer and the Kain-Fritsch for the convection. Rainfall forecasting was evaluated from 6 to 42 hours. The verification was performed using data from the Meteorological Station Network in Cuba. Two methods were used, one based on the punctual verification for the quantitative forecast, and another known as “partial verification” used for alternative forecast. As results, the WRF model implementation and its verification are achieved, which determined that this model underestimates the rainfall magnitudes, although deviations don’t overcome the 5 mm respect to the real one in the afternoons. From the occurrence viewpoint or not of the “rain” event the model also underestimates, but achieves high detection levels, 81 % for the forecast term 06-12 hours and 73 % for the term 30-36 hours. We conclude that the WRF model slightly underestimates the rainfall magnitude, but achieves high detection levels, which is really useful for making rain forecasts.
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