Distribution logistics modeling aimed at the “bullwhip effect” mitigation, drinks industry case in Perú and Colombia

Abstract

Objectives: To generate a mathematical model from the drinks distribution system, which allows to mitigate the “bullwhip effect” on the demand information, taking historical information from two drinks’ companies located in Peru and Colombia. Methods: We used system dynamics, Forrester models and demand forecasting’s techniques. The procedures of the study were: it was realized a background recognition about studies related to the distribution logistics; it was identified the variables which have incidence in the drinks companies’ distribution system; it was determined the existent causal relationships were determined between the identified variables. Establishing the model which describes the drinks’ distribution system, integrating involved actors and steps, validating the proposed model with historical information from drinks’ companies. Finally, recommendations or control measures were raised aimed at the “bullwhip effect” mitigation. Results: There is evidence that the fluctuation around an effective inventory of 0, shows a cyclical pattern from month 19, with weekly delays (and from month 34, with monthly delays). The demand type (constant or stochastic) involves no significant differences in the effective inventory behavior, only one more delay. Conclusions: Were determined the necessary variables to model the system; also it was able to determine the existent causal relationships between the identified variables, through the causal diagram elaboration, it shows the direction and sense of each incidence’s relationship (positive or negative).