Simulation model to determine levels of contamination of the Mantaro River

Abstract

Objectives: To determine if the contamination in the Mantaro river has some influence about the viability of the "Sierra Exportadora" program; after the construction of the pattern, will be conducting experiments in the model in order to reduce the uncertainty about the influence of the pollution of the Mantaro River on the viability of "Sierra Exportadora" program and to evaluate the potential results. Methods:Making a simulation model where this system will be used, which will be useful to extrapolate the possible results, this obtained solution will frame the most important landmarks that intervene in the process; these basic elements of the process are linked to each other. Besides, the diagram discloses that the process has a structure with a negative feedback loops, the influence is a description of the process which is being studied. After the simulation was done 50 times in the model with different values of entrance values such as the contamination, influence of population, the viability of the goose and artichoke, these data were stored in the generated charts by the Stella software and then these data were exported to Excel software for their analysis. Results: The construction of this simulation model only reduces the uncertainly caused by one of several factors, the contamination of the Mantaro River about the viability of the “Sierra Exportadora” program. Conclusions: The information generated by the investigation can be applied in other systems that have similar characteristic. What is proposed in fact to contribute and to integrate all the aspects in a general simulation model for the viability of the “Sierra Exportadora” program.