Modeling and forecast of solar ultraviolet index at Huancayo
Abstract
Objectives: Implement a radiative model to forecast the erythemal (that affects the human skin) UV radiation (UVR) in Huancayo city. Methods: The research was descriptive and comparative. It was used the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Visible (TUV) model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It was conditioned the input parameters for atmospheric conditions of Huancayo, like: ozone and temperature vertical distributions, total ozone climatology, altitude and albedo of the location. With these input data the model generated data every 3 minutes during the 24 hours of the 365 days of a year. For model validation, it was used ground measurements. For this, it was synchronized the spectral radiometer instrument GUV-511 of Biospherical Inc. that provides measurements at 305, 320, 340 and 380 nm. It was determined the Spearman’s correlation coefficient for statistical evaluation. Results: The analysis determined the good ability of TUV model to replicate the hourly variation in this location. Thus, also, the statistical analysis of the dataset reported a mean correlation coefficient of 0.88 (p<0.05) and it was possible to validate the model, making a detailed evaluation with data of cloudy and cloud-free days. Conclusions: It was possible to implement a radiative model, TUV, for forecast the annual climatology of erythemal UV radiation at Huancayo, in terms of the UV index. It will be useful to provide quantitative information to the population about the UV radiation levels that they are exposed, the maximum time for sun exposure without risk and with it to take decisions to protect their health.References
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