Mexico and United States: threats and opportunities arising from the renegotiation of NAFTA

Abstract

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has created one of the largest commercial areas in the world. For Mexico, this treaty, which has been in effect since 1994, represents an important factor of economic growth and exports, in which the United States is its main trading partner. Since the beginning of the government of President Donald Trump, there has been a period of uncertainty concerning the renegotiation and the possibility of eliminating the treaty, a possibility that has put in risk both the economic boom and relations between Mexico, the United States and Canada. This research analyzes the economic impact of NAFTA, with the objective of determining some of the strategies that Mexico will have to assume to continue its economic growth should the treaty be eliminated. The study is developed using a qualitative method supported by secondary data. It uses observation, bibliographical revision and interviews, both to specialists of the research area in order to describe and analyze the subject of study. We arrive to the conclusion that in the future, if the treaty is affected, it will result in economic instability in México, and tensions in its political and economic relations with the United States which will result in the decline of foreign direct investment in the country and a significant reduction in exports.